Energy Scenarios An IEA Perspective Dolf Gielen Senior Analyst Energy Technology and R&D Office
Energie Trialog, Villingen, Switzerland, 20-22 June 2007
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE IEA Energy Scenarios
z The IEA World Energy Outlook scenarios (RS, APS) for 2030 show that current trends are not sustainable
z ETP complements the WEO and shows new pathways to a sustainable future
z Emissions can be stabilised by 2050, if proper energy policies are implemented
z Technology plays a key role INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE IEA World Energy Outlook
zIEA Flagship publication zIssued every year zThis year (2007) focus on China and India
zWill be released in November INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE Energy Technology Perspectives 2006 ETP 2006 is part of the IEA recommendations on scenarios and strategies for the G-8 Launched June 2006 St Petersburg G-8 meeting ETP 2006 presents a review of a majority of the technologies in the energy-related sectors up to 2050 Next issue 2008 (Japan G8 summit) INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE IEA Scenarios & Strategies to 2050
z The ETP scenarios show new pathways to a sustainable future (< 550 ppm CO eq)
z Useful demand projections & fuel price assumptions consistent with WEO
z Emissions can be stabilised by 2050, if proper energy policies are implemented
z Technology plays a key role z Model-based analysis for the world, split into 15
z Cost-based decision making z Efforts are balanced across sectors and world INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE Scenario Analysis
z Scenarios analysed:
Baseline Scenario
Accelerated Technology Scenarios (ACT)
TECH Plus scenario
z ACT and TECH Plus scenarios:
Analyse the impact from R&D, Demonstration and Deployment measures
Incentives equivalent to 25 $/tonne CO2 for low- carbon technologies implemented world-wide from 2030 and on
Individual scenarios differ in terms of assumptions for key technology areas
Constant economic growth/service demand INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE GDP Growth [USD 2005 ppp] OECD North OECD Europe OECD Pacific Other Asia Middle east Latin America INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE Fuel Prices (Baseline Scenario) INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE Technology Assumptions Advanced Scenario Renewables H2 fuel cells biofuels efficiency 2.0 % p.a. Relatively optimistic across all technology areas improvement Slower cost Low Renewables reductions Lower public Low Nuclear acceptance 1.7 % p.a. Low Efficiency improvement Stronger cost Stronger cost reductions & TECH Plus Stronger cost reductions & through for improved reductions technology feedstock improvements availability INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE Primary Energy Supply [mtoe/yr] INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE Global CO2 Emissions 2003-2050 Baseline, ACT and TECH plus Scenarios ACT Scenarios 2050 Buildings Transport Industry Transformation Generation Baseline Baseline TECH Plus TECH Plus: More optimistic on pr ogress for certain key technologies Efficiency INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE CO2 Emissions Baseline and Map Scenarios Developing Countries Developing Countrie Map: OECD Emissions 32% below 2003 level, while emissions in Developing Countries are 65% higher INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE Emission reduction by sectors MAP Scenario: Industry 10% 32 Gt CO2 reduction in 2050 Energy & feedstock effic. 6% Materials & products effic. 1% Pocess innovation 1% Cogen. & steam 2% Coal to gas 5% Buildings 18% Nuclear 6% Space heating 3% efficiency Air conditioning 3% Fossil fuel gen. eff 1% Lighting, misc. 3.5% Power Gen Water heat., cooking 1% Appliances 7.5% Hydro 2% Biomass 2% Transport 17% Other renew. 6% Fuel economy in transport 17% CCS in fuel transformation 3% CCS in industry 5% Biofuels in transport 6% Fuel mix in building 5% and industry 2% INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE Energy Efficiency - A top Priority
z Improved energy efficiency saves about 15 Gt CO2 by 2050 - equivalent to 60% of current emissions
z Improved efficiency (2%/yr) halves expected growth in electricity demand and reduces the need for generation capacity by a third
z In a scenario with less progress in efficiency, CO2 emissions increase more than 20%
z Lower efficiency progress increases supply- side investments and costs of reducing CO2 emissions INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE Global Electricity Generation by Fuel ACT Scenarios 2050 Baseline 2030 Baseline 2050 Low Nuclear Low Efficiency TECH Plus 2050 (WEO 2005) Renewables ACT Scenarios: Important role for CCS and strong growth in the shares for renewables and nuclear INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE Electricity Generation
z CCS is crucial for the role coal can play in a CO2 constrained world – without CCS coal-fired generation in 2050 drops below today’s level
z By 2050 more than 5 000 TWh electricity globally can be produced by coal-plants equipped with CCS
z There is an urgent need for more R&D and for full- scale CCS demonstration plants
z Generation from renewables can quadruple by 2050
z Nuclear can gain a much more important role in countries where it is acceptable INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE Transportation Sector
z Total transport fuel demand in Baseline scenario grows 140% (2050)
z LDV vehicle travel grows 140% z Average Baseline LDV stock efficiency gain 18% (annual gain half that of the past 25 years)
z 20 mb/d Baseline efficiency gains for all
z Average LDV stock efficiency gain Act Map +40%, TechPlus +50% INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE Transport Sector Fuel Demand INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE Key Findings
z Current policies will not bring us on a path towards a sustainable energy future
z A more sustainable energy future is possible with a portfolio of clean and efficient technologies
z Using technologies that have an additional cost of less than 25 $/tonne CO avoided:
Global CO emissions can be returned to today's level by 2050
Expected growth in both oil and electricity demand can be
z Requires urgent action to promote, develop and deploy a full mix of energy technologies
z Collaboration between developing and developed nations will be essential INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE Thank you ! [email protected] INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
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Energy Scenarios 
IEA World Energy Outlook
Energy Technology Perspectives 2006
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